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Stock Market in Australia Extends Rally

Australian stock market is higher today, extending gains from the previous session, following the positive lead overnight from Wall Street. In mid-day trades, the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index is adding 24.90 points or 0.43% to 5,797.70, off a high of 5,804.80. The broader All Ordinaries Index is rising 25.20 points or 0.43% to 5,827.00.

The AUD is lower against the U.S. dollar today after iron ore prices fell sharply. In early trades, the local unit was trading at US$0.7537, down from US$0.7550 on Tuesday. 

Gold miners are also advancing. Newcrest Mining is adding 0.4 percent and Evolution Mining is rising more than 1 percent. The major miners are mostly lower amid the sharp fall in iron ore prices. 

BHP Billiton is adding 0.7 percent, while Rio Tinto is losing 1 percent and Fortescue Metals is lower by more than 1 percent.

Among oil stocks, Oil Search is up 0.6 percent and Woodside Petroleum is rising 0.3 percent, while Santos is declining almost 1 percent. 

 

Westpac Bank revealed that consumer confidence in Australia ebbed again in June, as its index slipped 1.8 percent to a score of 96.2. That follows the 1.1 percent decline in May to 98.0. 

The index has declined in three straight months and continues to rest beneath the break-even line of 100 that separates optimists from pessimists.

 

Nevertheless, investors are cautious ahead of the release of Chinese economic data and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision later in the day. 

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Latest in Stocks

ASX 200 (5741, 1.1%) is up 63 points as it continues to push higher into late arvo trade. 

Its going from strength to strength today after defying the early pointer from futures trading that suggested the recent sell-off in tech stocks on Wall Street would send the local index lower.

 

Dow (21235.67, -0.17%) is slowly inching up towards 21600 and could possibly test 21400 on the upside this week. Support remains at 21000 and while the index is trading above 21000, the trend remains bullish.

 

Dax (12690.44, -0.98%) fell sharply yesterday instead of breaking above 12850. We could possibly see some trade within the 12650-12850 region in the near term before testing 13000.

Shanghai (3138.67, -0.04%) has enough scope on the upside towards 3160-3170 for the next couple of sessions.

 

Nikkei (19885.72, -0.11%) is holding above 19825 and could move up towards 20000 in the coming sessions. Near term looks bullish.

 

Nifty (9616.40, -0.54%) has been fluctuating within the 9700-96500 region and could possibly continue to do so for some more sessions. 

Immediate support is seen near 9600 which could extend to 9550 on the downside. Overall the index could be ranged sideways before rallying to higher levels.

 

 

 

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Oil Prices Plunged Below $46 As Stockpile Surge

Crude Oil prices plunged below $46 per barrel and is poised to test target support near an upward sloping trend line that comes in near $44. Resistance is seen near the 10 day moving average at 48.56.  

Additional resistance is seen near the 200 day moving average at 49.59. Prices continue to form a topping pattern, which include a modified head and shoulder reversal pattern and a break of the neckline level at $44 could lead to a test of the August 2016 lows at 39.60.

Momentum has turned negative as the MACD index generated a crossover sell signal. This occurs as the spread crosses below the 9 day exponential moving average of the spread. 

The index moved from positive to negative territory confirming the sell signal. The MACD histogram is printing in the red with a downward sloping trajectory which foreshadows lower prices.

 

U.S. stockpiles puts up another obstacle for OPEC and other petroleum exporting countries, which have cut back their output in order to shrink global inventories by about 300 million barrels to the five-year average.

The imports of oil rose by 356,000 barrels a day, while exports dropped by 746,000 barrels a day.

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Economic Growth in Australia Declined 0.3% in Q1 of 2017

Economic growth in Australia dropped 0.3% in the first quarter, seeing the the year-on-year increase slow to just 1.7%, the weakest expansion since 2009.

The result was in line with market expectations but well below the 1.1% increase recorded in the Q4 of 2016. Economists have started growing cautious at slowing growth, figures potentially pointing to an inevitable recession. 


Australian Bureau of Statistics tracked 20 industries and 17 have a recorded growth during the Q1, with the best performers including finance and insurance services, wholesale trade and health care and social assistance. 

Agriculture, forestry and fishing decreased after strong growth in the previous two quarters, while manufacturing decreased for the tenth time in 11 quarter. Dwelling investment declined in all states, except Victoria and overall is the largest decline for Australia since June 2009. 

However, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data were well received by the market, which, after poor net export figures on Tuesday, was primed for disappointment. The Australian dollar shot higher to be up 0.4 per cent at $0.7537. 

Data yesterday showed net exports as a percentage of GDP fell 0.7% points in the Q1, which prompted many economists to trim their forecasts for March quarter growth and offset some stronger inventories data that were released. 

 

According to the Reserve Bank of Australia, the economic growth is still expected to increase gradually over the next couple of years to a little above 3%.

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Osisko Shares Bounce after Acquiring Orion Mine’s Assets for $1.13 Billion

Osisko Gold shares bounce more than 10 percent after they decided to acquire a precious metals portfolio from Orion Mine Finance Group for $1.13 billion. The acquisition will result in Osisko holding a total of 131 royalties and streams, including 16 revenue-generating assets.

The company was trading up 9.7% to $15.80 in Toronto and almost 9.9% higher in New York to $11.72 on the news of the acquisition.

Osisko, created in June 2014 following the acquisition of Osisko Mining by Agnico Eagle Mines and Yamana Gold, said it will pay Orion $675-million in cash and the remaining $450-million in company shares for the assets.

The transaction gives the Canadian company a 9.6% diamond stream on the Renard diamond mine and a 4% gold and silver stream on the Brucejack gold and silver mine, in addition to a 100% silver stream on the Mantos Blancos copper mine in Chile.

Osisko’s flagship, Canada’s largest producing gold mine will continue to be the 5% net smelter return royalty on the Malartic mine.

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Global Economy Lifted to 2.7% Growth This Year

According to World Bank, the economy will pick up speed this year and next, mostly lifted by commodity prices and a pickup in global trade. They estimate a 2.7% growth this year and 2.9% in 2018, a much better improvement from 2016’s 2.4% expansion.

But the environment worldwide is looking sunnier. Commodity prices are bouncing back from a freefall that began in 2014, taking down two years of growth. The bank sees oil prices rising 24 percent and non-energy commodity prices climbing 4 percent this year. 

World trade is expected to grow 4 percent in 2017, the fastest in three years. The bank sees the U.S. economy growing 2.1% this year, up from 1.6% in 2016, and the 19-country euro zone expanding 1.7% down a notch from 1.8 percent. 

Japan is expected to grow 1.5% fastest pace since 2013 and up from 1 percent last year. China’s deceleration will continue from 6.7 percent growth last year to 6.5 percent in 2017 to 6.3 percent in 2018 as the country moves away from unsustainable growth fueled by often wasteful investment and toward slower, steadier growth based on consumer spending.

 

The recovery of the global economy is still fragile and also faces long-term challenges such as productivity slump that vexes economists and constrains improvements in living standards.

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WA Proposed an Iron Ore Levy to be Paid Advance

WA proposed an Iron Ore Levy to be paid in advance under the potential plan that would see the two biggest miners in the country to pay out an iron ore levy early in a one-off lump sum.

Instead of increasing the miners’ rental payments levied on iron ore, currently fixed at 25 Australian cents a ton, the companies would be asked to pay them out in advance.

 

The opposition National Party last week said in parliament that such a plan could raise as much as A$4 billion for the state.

Western Australia’s Labor administration, which ousted a Liberal National coalition in March, faces a daunting task in turning around its economy. The government has previously said that erasing a debt mountain of more than A$30 billion will take decades.

 

The plan would involve a lengthy process of negotiations. It would require agreement from both the state and the companies, and the federal government would also have to agree to the payment being exempt from the goods and services tax distribution system.

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